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Lies, Damned Lies and 112 Constituencies ‘turned Remain’, by Dr Bob Edwards

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This week the press has reported, on the basis of a study by Focaldata, that 112 Westminster constituencies are have ‘switched’ loyalties from Leave to Remain.

Our subscriber Dr Bob Edwards, Managing Partner, Edwards Economic Research, points out that claims that 112 constituencies have ‘turned Remain’ rely on some very shoddy statistics.

This week the press has reported, on the basis of a study by Focaldata, that 112 Westminster constituencies are have ‘switched’ loyalties from Leave to Remain.

Focaldata used a YouGov sample of 15,000 voters, covering 632 constituencies. Therefore, the average sample in each constituency was just 24 persons. If you apply the basic laws of statistical sampling, any statement based on a sample of 24 persons has a margin of error of +/-16.78% with 90% confidence.

It follows that of the 112 constituencies, only four (Knowsley, Liverpool Walton, Southampton Test and Liverpool West Derby) can be said with 90% confidence to have a majority for Remain.

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